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Northern Nevada Economic Forecast Podcast

April 13, 2017

I am honored to have been invited to participate in the podcast by the University Center for Economic Development at the University of Nevada, Reno.  The podcast focused on our economic and industry indices for the Reno MSA.  A link to the podcast is provided below:

Northern Nevada Economic Forecast Podcast

Reno MSA Economic Outlook Presentation

March 22, 2017

Brian Bonnenfant, Center for Regional Studies at UNR, and I did a presentation this morning for the Northern Nevada Network.  The presentation focused on an overview of the economic performance of the Reno MSA, including a look at historical economic indicators, including taxable sales, gaming revenue, visitors, single family home sales, home prices, employment, wages, and more.  The presentation also considered future population and employment projections and issues in the region associated with this growth.  A copy of the presentation is included below:

Reno MSA Economic Outlook Presentation

Washoe County Commercial Building Permit Trends

April 14, 2016

Our most recent industry index for the construction industry in the Reno MSA showed that while the index increased slightly between December 2015 and January 2016 (0.35%), it actually decreased by 5.31% compared to January of previous year.[1]  Historical graph for the construction index is shown below, showing the index declined since July 2015 with a slight increase in January 2016.

constr graph

The major reason for this decline, as shown in the table below for January 2016 is a decline in the number of commercial building permits between December 2015 and January 2016.  Both the number of commercial building permits and commercial permit valuation declined between January 2015 and 2016.

const table

The graph below shows Washoe County’s number of commercial permits issued and the value of these permits.  The data is the graph is monthly moving average (MMA) data, which means that for each month, the data is the average of that month and the 11 previous months.  Based on MMA data, the graph shows a peak in commercial building permits and permit valuation in July 2015 (consistent with the index) before falling through January 2016.  Commercial building permit data has been released for all three jurisdictions (Reno, Sparks, and Washoe County) for February 2016 showing a total of 13 building permits issued and valuation of $11.0 million.  This is greater than in terms of the number of building permits of 9 in January 2016, but lower in value compared to $15.1 million.  March 2016 commercial permit data has been released for the City of Reno only, showing 26 building permits valued at $15.2 million.  As a result, March 2016 will exceed both January and February permits data.

Comm.jpg

While of some concern, the decline in the number of commercial permits needs to be considered in its historical context.  Permit data for 2014 was at the highest level since 2008, just before the full impact of the recession in the region.  There were 240 commercial permits valued at $365.4 million issued in 2014.  In 2015, 196 permits were issued with a value of $231.9 million, representing another strong year of activity, but lower than 2014.

The total number of permits in January and February 2015 of 34 was higher than the 22 permits issued in the first two months of 2016.  However, the valuation of these permits in the first two months of 2015 was $20.5 million compared to $26.1 million in 2016.  As a result, while our late 2015 and 2016 commercial permit levels have been lower than the stellar commercial permit year we had in 2014, these levels are still the highest commercial permit activity the region experienced since 2009.  If March 2016 City of Reno activity is any indication, this activity will continue to improve.

On the residential construction front, single family permits continue their increase since the bottom in 2010-2011, with permit activity increasing in terms of both the number of permits and value of permits issued, as shown below on an MMA basis.

SF

Multi-family permit activity spiked in 2015, before declining to permit valuation levels seen during the real estate boom.  The decline in the number of permits issued is attributed to normal construction cycles of the large number of multi-family projects approved and planned for the area, not because of lack of demand for these projects.

MF.jpg

[1] Please find our economic and industry indices on our website: http://ekayconsultants.com/research.

EEC’s Industry Dynamics Reports-Housing Market

February 1, 2016

This week, we are introducing the Single-Family Housing Index for the Reno MSA.  The full Housing Dynamics Report can be found on our website by following the link provided below.  Some of the findings of the index for 3Q 2015 are summarized below:

-Reno MSA Single-Family Housing Index, based on seasonally and inflation adjusted data, increased by 0.57% between 2Q and 3Q 2015, totaling five straight quarters of continued growth in residential housing activities in the region.

-Year-over-year, the Index increased 4.73% in 3Q 2014 compared to 3Q 2015.

Clink here for the full copy of the Single Family Housing Dynamics Report-Reno MSA for January 2016.

EEC’s Industry Dynamics Reports-Business Activity

January 26, 2016

This week, we are introducing the Business Activity Index for the Reno MSA.  The full Business Activity Dynamics Report can be found on our website by following the link provided below.  Some of the findings of the index for 3Q 2015 are summarized below:

-Reno MSA Business Activity Index, based on seasonally and inflation adjusted data, increased 1.51% between 2Q and 3Q 2015, totaling 13 straight quarters of growth in business activities in the region.

-Year-over-year, the Index increased 4.65% between 3Q 2014 and 2015.

Clink here for the full copy of the Business Activity Dynamics Report-Reno MSA for January 2016.

EEC’s Industry Dynamics Reports-Construction

January 18, 2016

In addition to the Leading Economic Index for the overall Reno MSA economy, we are introducing three specialized indices: Construction, Business Activity, and Single-Family Housing.  These are areas that drive the Reno MSA economy and deserve special attention.  These indices, along with a discussion of index trends, will be updated quarterly as part of our Industry Dynamics Reports.

This week, we are introducing the Construction Index for the Reno MSA.  The full Construction Dynamics Report can be found on our website by following the link provided below.  Some of the findings of the index for 3Q 2015 are summarized below:

-Reno MSA Construction Index, based on seasonally and inflation-adjusted data, decreased by 7.63% between the 2Q and 3Q 2015, indicating a decline in construction activities in the region.

-However, year-over-year, the Index grew by 11.99% for 3Q 2014 and 2015.

-Prior to the recent decline, the Index experienced 11-quarters of growth between 3Q 2012 and 1Q 2015.

Clink here for the full copy of the Construction Dynamics Report-Reno MSA for January 2016.

 

Introducing the Reno MSA Leading Economic Index

January 12, 2016

Economic indicator data published in our previous blogs is useful in understanding changes occurring in each individual area, but do little to provide a picture of the overall economy and its changes over time.  Economic indices, which combine multiple indicators into a single number, can represent either the current state of the economy (coincident index) or future economic changes (leading index), providing a clearer picture of the economy and its trends.

Ekay Economic Consultants, Inc., in cooperation with the Center for Regional Studies at the University of Nevada, Reno, is pleased to announce the release of its Leading Economic Index and Coincident Economic Index for the Reno MSA area.  The indices are referred to as RLI and RCI, respectively.  Latest results of the two indices are summarized below, along with a graph of their historic changes.  For more details about index indicators, values, and methodology, please click here.

-Reno MSA Leading Index (RLI) increased between September and October 2015 (0.48%), indicating expected growth in the regional economy over the next 6-12 months.  This is the 41st consecutive increase in the index since May 2012.

-Reno MSA Coincident Index (RCI) increased between October and November 2015 (0.24%), (most recent data), verifying that the current economy continues to expand.

Index 1-16

Reno MSA Leading Economic Index and Coincident Economic Index

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